With just a single photograph, China’s teenage Olympic diving champion and national hero, Quan Hongchan, has plunged young Chinese into a new obsession: racing to collect quirky turtles hidden inside blind boxes.

The game is simple: Viewers buy packages of blind bags filled with colorful turtle toys, with prices ranging from 9.9 yuan for four bags to 99.9 yuan for 45 ($1.40-$14). Players select a turtle color they hope to collect, and as the livestream host reveals the contents, buyers win extra packs based on the turtles they match.

If their chosen color appears, players win an extra bag. Two identical turtles earn another pack, while three in a row score five more. The objective is even simpler: collect as many turtles as possible by winning additional bags through matching combinations.

While the game had been gaining popularity since June, it went truly viral after Quan Hongchan’s involvement.

The day before her diving final at the Paris Olympics, Quan was spotted purchasing turtle-themed blind boxes, and days later, on Aug. 12, she shared a photo of her collection. The post quickly amassed millions of views, inspiring her devoted fanbase to join the frenzy and build their own turtle collections.

The game’s format has proven so addictive that some livestreams have reported selling thousands of blind bags in a single session. According to data from the livestream platform Chanmama, the stream where Quan made her purchase saw orders soar from around 1,000 a day to 25,000, generating a gross merchandise value of 75,000 to 100,000 yuan. Streamers were forced to quickly open a second channel to handle the surge in traffic.

The blind box market in China has exploded in recent years, driven largely by young consumers. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, sales surged from 400 million yuan in 2017 to 9.7 billion yuan in 2021, with projections estimating the market could reach 42.4 billion yuan by 2026.

A report by data consulting firm MobTech highlights the trend’s youth appeal: 37% of buyers are aged 18 to 24, with another 37% between 25 and 34. The craze extends beyond individual stores — livestreams featuring blind box openings are drawing massive audiences, with unpacking videos racking up thousands of views overnight.

Unboxing

He Yuzhen, a 24-year-old postgraduate student from Beijing, hadn’t expected to build her “turtle army” in one night. She tuned into a livestream before bed but stayed up for two more hours, drawn in by the game.

Within minutes, her luck took off — three matching turtles, full sets, one win after another. Her 19 packs quickly grew to nearly a hundred.

The excitement kept her awake as she edited and uploaded a video of her wins to Instagram-like platform Xiaohongshu. By morning, it had gained tens of thousands of views.

“I’ve always been lucky,” said He, smiling. “Ever since I was little, I’ve often won first prizes. This just proves my luck again. I feel like I’m the ‘chosen one.’”

Chen Qiuyu, a 24-year-old marketing professional from Chengdu in southwestern China, decided to try her luck after seeing livestreams flood her phone for weeks. On her first attempt, she won nearly 50 packages from 19 bags and was so excited she jumped around her house, replaying the video over 30 times to relive the thrill.

Encouraged by her success, Chen tried again a month later, but this time, her luck didn’t hold — she received only the guaranteed 30 turtles.

“Everyone believes their luck is uniquely good — and that’s why they take the gamble,” said Zeng Jiayuan, a friend of Chen, who was with her when she placed the orders.

The appeal of collecting turtles might appear to based on pure chance, but the numbers tell a different story.

The collectible turtles come in 10 different colors, with various game rules influencing the number of turtles collected. A student majoring in Electrical Engineering at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, surnamed Ke, used AI and coding to calculate the optimal strategy for maximizing turtle draws. Her analysis shows purchasing nine bags for 20 yuan typically yields around 17 turtles, while 19 bags can result in about 40.

Despite the chance-based gameplay, Ke’s findings sparked widespread discussion online, revealing how even with smart strategies, sellers still profit significantly from the game.

As the game surged in popularity, livestream sellers began using the same blind bag model to market a range of other items including pens, notebooks, cards, tissues, and even socks.

Amid the fervor, experts warn of potential risks tied to the trend. Concerns have emerged over the quality of products sold through blind boxes, as well as the potential for impulsive, addictive behavior.

Han Yingwei, a senior partner at Yingke Law Firm in Beijing, cautioned that selling substandard goods through blind boxes — while enforcing “no returns or exchanges” policies — infringes on consumers’ rights to fair trade. If the products don’t match what’s advertised, it further violates their right to accurate information.

And Tang Danlin, secretary-general of the Zhejiang Provincial Lawyers Association, asserted that platforms implement anti-addiction measures for livestream games to curb impulsive purchases of turtle blind bags. “It’s not just minors who need protection from addiction — adults must also be cautious to avoid developing a gambler’s mindset,” Tang said.

After playing the game twice, Chen has no plans to buy any more turtles. The few that remained sat on her windowsill, and while her friend found them a bit annoying, they stayed where they were. “Few people keep buying them consistently. It’s just for fun, not to end up with a pile of useless turtles at home,” she admitted.

He Yuzhen, on the other hand, has gathered all her turtles into a big transparent box. Though she wasn’t planning to buy more anytime soon, she said: “Looking at these little turtles reminds me of the joy I felt when I placed the order, and I’ll remember this special experience. I don’t think it’s a waste.”

After learning that Olympic champion Quan Hongchan had a similar collection, He became even more fond of her turtles. “Liking the same thing as a champion gives these toys extra meaning.”

Editor: Apurva.

(Header image: Toy turtles on display in Yiwu, Zhejiang province, August 17, 2024. VCG)