The health costs of a warming climate appear to be accelerating in China, with heat wave-related deaths in 2023 increasing by 309% from the 1986–2005 average, a new report revealed on Tuesday.

The study, led by the Lancet Countdown Asia Centre based in Tsinghua University, offers a comprehensive overview of the severe toll climate change is already taking on China’s population and economy.

Last year was the hottest year ever recorded in China, as well as the second-driest since 2012, with regions across the country suffering a string of droughts, floods, and heat waves that severely impacted local communities, according to the report.

The average resident in China was exposed to a record 16 days of heat waves in 2023, nearly double the previous year’s total and more than triple the historical average recorded from 1986 to 2005.

Although a significant drop from 2022, last year still recorded more than 37,000 heat wave-related deaths, with traditionally cooler parts of northern China seeing a particularly sharp increase in mortality levels, the report said.

Heat wave-related deaths in Beijing were 6.4 times higher than the historical average, and 4.9 times higher in the northwestern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.

“By the 2060s, annual heat wave-related mortality is expected to reach 29,000 to 38,000 in China, an increase of 183% to 275% from historical levels, with most provinces seeing more than double the fatalities,” the report noted.

The economic losses caused by heat waves were equally severe. The number of work hours lost due to heat stress in China rose to 36.9 billion in 2023, which is 24.1% above the historical average. The southern Guangdong province and the central Henan province were hit particularly hard in this regard.

According to the report, China is likely to see a 28% to 37% increase in work hours lost due to heat stress by the 2060s if current trends continue. It added that the country urgently needs to implement protective adaptation strategies to mitigate this issue, especially in traditionally cooler regions that are less prepared to deal with heat waves.

Meanwhile, heat waves are also causing a spike in inactivity in China, as residents are forced to stay indoors for long stretches. China’s citizens experienced a 60% surge in lost safe outdoor activity hours in 2023 compared with the historical average, with each person losing 2.2 hours on average each day.

The sharp reduction in such activities could cause a rise in chronic diseases in the long term unless action is taken to address the problem, the report noted.

These findings underlined the urgent need for China to take further action to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and accelerate its efforts to adapt to a warming climate, the report said. 

“We are currently at a turning point where climate change has far exceeded the scope of environmental issues,” Zheng Zhijie, the chief representative of the Beijing office of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, said at a press conference marking the launch of the report on Tuesday. “It has profoundly affected everyone’s health, economy, and quality of life.”

China has already rolled out a number of policies and guidelines on climate adaptation, including its first National Health Adaptation Plan that sets a series of goals for the government to achieve by 2030.

While the report acknowledges these efforts, it highlights the multifaceted challenges that China will still face during its transition from fossil fuels to clean energy.

According to the report, coal still accounts for 55.3% of China’s total energy consumption. Though this figure has declined over the past two decades, coal consumption actually increased by 4% year over year in 2023 as extreme weather led to heightened energy demand.

The report outlined five actions China should take to ensure a “healthier and equitable future,” which included establishing effective inter-departmental coordination mechanisms to address the health risks posed by climate change, accelerating the introduction of regional carbon emission control policies, and the promotion of climate and health-friendly investment and financing.

(Header image: VCG)