I Do, But Not Yet: Young Chinese Delay Tying the Knot
After a slight rebound in 2023, marriage registrations in China returned to a downward trend last year, with just 6.11 million couples tying the knot, a year-on-year decrease of more than 20%, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs.
Observers and officials suggest the decline, which began in 2013, is largely due to changes in the country’s demographics and in younger people’s attitudes toward starting a family.
China’s shrinking population of 20- to 40-year-olds — the age range in which most marriages occur — is one key factor. The China Statistical Yearbook shows that this age group totaled 371 million in 2023, down from 435 million a decade earlier, when marriage registrations hit their highest level.
However, Li Ting, a professor at the Population Development Studies Center of Renmin University of China, says that a more significant driver is the trend of younger people deciding to delay marriage.
According to the China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2024, almost 30% of people aged 30 were unmarried in 2023 compared with 14.6% a decade earlier.
Despite a bump in marriage registrations in 2023 as a result of many couples going ahead with wedding plans postponed during the pandemic, Li says couples in general are putting off their “big day” because of changing views on traditional family values brought by higher levels of education and rising living costs.
“Previously, young people typically married at career or graduation milestones, but now many might only consider marriage when planning to have children,” which people are also doing later compared with previous generations, Li says. “Whether these delayed marriages will eventually result in lifelong singlehood remains to be seen.”
So far, six of the seven provincial regions that have published their marriage registration data for 2024 have reported year-on-year declines below the national average, with the smallest drop — 9.1% — recorded in China’s southwestern Yunnan province.
In some smaller cities, civil affairs officials have attributed the decline in marriages to the long-standing trend of younger people working away from home in major metropolises, and suggest that faster-paced lifestyles and limited social circles are making it harder for people to find partners.
Scholars in demographics define people aged 50 and above who have never wed — and therefore are unlikely to reproduce — as “lifelong unmarried.” Based on data from the 2020 census, China’s lifelong unmarried rate is still relatively low: 3.25% for men and 0.24% for women. However, Li warns that China could follow the trajectory of countries such as South Korea and Japan, where the rate has been steadily increasing for the past three decades.
Reported by Chen Zhifang and Chen Liangxian.
A version of this article originally appeared in The Paper. It has been translated and edited for brevity and clarity, and is republished here with permission.
Translator: Chen Yue; graphic designers: Wei Yao and Luo Yahan; editors: Wang Juyi and Hao Qibao.
(Header image: A newlywed couple poses for a photo at a marriage registration center in Zunyi, Guizhou province, May 20, 2024. Zhang Zhengju/VCG)
